Midlands Local Elections 2025: Key Contests and Emerging Trends

While 2025 isn’t an election year for Birmingham or the West Midlands Combined Authority, voters across the Midlands counties of Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire, Shropshire, Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire, and Derbyshire will head to the polls on May 1.

With unpopular policies like the so-called “farmers tax” and net zero turning rural voters away—and “two-tier Keir” now a popular dig at Labour’s national offering—Starmer’s party is also struggling to gain traction in many areas.

These traditionally Conservative county councils are facing a new kind of pressure: a visible and coordinated push by Reform UK to disrupt the local political order.

Reform UK’s momentum in national polls has continued despite setbacks, from internal rows with Rupert Lowe to awkward public statements distancing the party from figures like Tommy Robinson. But the brand is rising, especially among younger voters—and that’s reflected in some of Reform’s candidates, including Olympic boxer Luke Campbell, Love Island’s Ollie Williams, and Stiliyan Petrov, son of the former Aston Villa captain.

While roads, schools, and social care remain the issues most voters care about, this year’s contests carry a deeper question: will the national surge for Reform UK translate into real breakthroughs on the ground?

Staffordshire: A Potential Breakthrough for Reform UK

Staffordshire has long been a Conservative stronghold, with the party holding 53 of 62 seats after recent by-election losses. However, Reform UK is contesting every division in the county, signaling a serious challenge. In the 2024 general election, Reform secured significant vote shares in areas like Tamworth (25.1%) and Cannock Chase (approximately 22%), indicating potential for gains in urban and semi-urban districts such as Tamworth, Stafford, Cannock, Burton, and Lichfield.

Warwickshire: Conservative Dominance with Emerging Reform Presence

Warwickshire County Council remains under Conservative control, with 42 of 57 seats. While there have been no dramatic shifts since 2021, Reform UK’s presence is notable, fielding candidates in several divisions. Former footballer Stiliyan Petrov Jr. is standing for Reform in the rural Lapworth & West Kenilworth division, highlighting the party’s appeal to younger voters. Despite this, the Conservatives are expected to retain control, with Reform’s impact likely limited to increasing their profile for future contests.

Worcestershire: Conservative Stronghold Faces Minor Challenges

Worcestershire County Council is firmly Conservative, with the party holding 45 of 57 seats since 2021. Opposition parties, including the Liberal Democrats, Labour, and Greens, have a minimal presence. Reform UK is fielding candidates in the county, but their influence is expected to be limited, with the main contests occurring in urban areas such as Worcester city, Redditch, and Kidderminster.