Frequently Asked Questions — Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Constituency

What is the polling projection for Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare?

Our ward-level projections for Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare are based on Uniform National Swing applied to the most recent local election baselines, adjusted for local elasticity and national polling trends. These are nowcasts, not predictions — they show what would happen if an election were held today. See our methodology page for full details.

Where can I see Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare on a map?

You can view Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare and all its constituent wards on our interactive election map. The map shows ward-level results colour-coded by winning party across England and Wales.

How accurate are election forecasts for Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare?

Our projection model is backtested against historical local elections. The model's winner accuracy, mean absolute error, and calibration metrics are published openly on our methodology page. Projections carry inherent uncertainty — we show confidence levels for each ward.